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The lead in the NFC South is on the line when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Atlanta Falcons on TNF in Week 5

The Bucs lead the division at 3-1 with the Falcons (and Saints) a game behind

Below, see the Buccaneers vs Falcons predictions, picks, and best odds for Thursday Night Football on Oct. 3

Week 5 already brings a huge game in the NFC South as the division-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1, 1-0 away, 3-1 ATS) visit the Atlanta Falcons (2-2, 1-2 home, 1-3 ATS), who would take over first place with a victory. This is Atlanta’s fourth home game in five weeks, leaving just five more the rest of the season so the Falcons can ill-afford to fall two games back of the Bucs if they harbor legitimate hopes of an NFC South crown.

The Buccaneers vs Falcons odds list Atlanta as 1.5-point home favorites across the board in the Week 5 NFL odds, with the game total ranging from 43.5 to 44.0.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 pm ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Predictions andamp; Picks

Falcons moneyline (-125) at ESPN Bet – 2.0 units

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The Buccaneers have looked like Super Bowl contenders some weeks, and were crushed by the Denver Broncos (26-7) the other. Despite their 3-1 record, they only sit 14th in DVOA, one spot ahead of the 2-2 Falcons (15th).

Preseason handicapping projected the Falcons as a considerably stronger team. The 2024 NFL win totals listed Atlanta with at 10.5 O/U, two full games higher than the Bucs at 8.5.

It’s taking Kirk Cousins time to develop chemistry with his new group of receivers, and the continued lack of production from TE Kyle Pitts (eight receptions, 105 yards in four games) is mindblowing for a player with his physical talents, but I expect the veteran Cousins to start getting a little more out of his talented corps of skill-position players as the weeks go by.

The Falcons have also been a good bet to win at home in recent history. In the 2022 and 2023 seasons, Atlanta went 11-6 straight-up at home, while posting a horrendous 3-14 record in road games. While they’re just 1-2 at home so far this season, a back-and-forth 22-17 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs can certainly be excused. My main takeaway from watching that game was that the Falcons aren’t going to be overmatched by anyone on their home turf, not even the two-time defending Super Bowl champs.

The Buccaneers have an undeniably high ceiling, as evidenced by a 20-16 road win at Detroit and last weeks’ 33-16 rout of the Eagles, which they led 24-0 midway through the second quarter. But the current spread is recency bias. Atlanta would have been laying 3.5 or 4.0 in the lookahead lines before Week 1. Getting the Falcons to win at basically a pick’em price is solid value.

The NFL public betting percentages currently show 69% of moneyline handle on Atlanta (as of 2:30 pm ET on Wednesday). So if this line is going to move, it’s only going to get shorter for the Falcons.

Best Available Buccaneers vs Falcons Odds

The Bucs vs Falcons odds show very little discrepancy across sportsbooks. Every single North American book lists the spread at Atlanta -1.5. The only difference at the moment is that FanDuel has Tampa to cover at -105 odds (and Atlanta at -115). All other sportsbooks have the ATS lines at -110 both ways.

Not coincidentally, FanDuel also has the best odds on Tampa Bay to win straight-up, listing the Buccaneers moneyline at +114. Tampa is +105 at most other sportsbooks. The best odds on an Atlanta victory are -125, which can be found at Bet365, DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM, and ESPN Bet right now.