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Dallas boasts a dynamic housing market compared to other Texas cities. Fueled by a robust job market and a healthy commercial sector, the city attracts a steady stream of newcomers. However, diving into this market requires understanding current trends.

Unlike some Texas cities, Dallas leans towards a competitive market, so be prepared for potential bidding wars. This article unpacks everything you need to know about the Dallas housing market, including home values, key trends, and valuable insights for buyers and sellers.

Dallas Housing Market Trends 2024

The Dallas housing market in 2024 is undergoing a period of adjustment with declines in sales volume and slight changes in home prices. The increased housing supply and extended selling times reflect a more balanced market. The economic landscape, with its job growth and slight rise in unemployment, continues to influence housing dynamics in the region.

Let's dive into the latest data to understand current trends and what they might mean for you.

Home Sales

Sales volume for single-unit residential housing in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area has experienced a notable decline. In June 2024, sales volume decreased by 11.57% year-over-year (YoY), dropping from 9,359 transactions to 8,276 transactions. Year-to-date sales reached a total of 45,960 closed listings. Correspondingly, the dollar volume fell from $4.77 billion to $4.21 billion.

Home Prices

The average sales price of homes in the region showed a slight decrease of 0.17% YoY, moving from $509,329 to $508,462. Conversely, the average price per square foot increased from $212.30 to $213.89. The median price declined by 1.22% YoY, from $410,000 to $405,000, while the median price per square foot saw a modest rise from $198.57 to $199.69.

Housing Supply

The months inventory for single-unit residential housing increased significantly, rising from 2.5 months to 3.8 months. Additionally, the days to sell a property also increased, going from 73 days to 78 days.

Market Trends

The Dallas housing market in 2024 is characterized by a decline in sales volume and slight dips in home prices, coupled with an increase in the price per square foot. The housing supply has expanded, and properties are taking longer to sell compared to the previous year.

Detailed Housing Report for June 2024

In June 2024, the sales volume for single-family homes decreased by 11.16% YoY, falling from 8,749 transactions to 7,773 transactions. Year-to-date sales for single-family homes totaled 42,936 closed listings. The dollar volume for single-family homes dropped from $4.53 billion to $4.01 billion.

The average sales price for single-family homes dipped by 0.23% YoY, from $517,531 to $516,358. The average price per square foot increased from $209.86 to $212.09. The median price declined by 1.08%, from $415,000 to $410,500, while the median price per square foot rose from $196.89 to $198.51. The months inventory for single-family homes grew from 2.5 months to 3.7 months, and the days to sell increased from 74 to 77 days.

Employment and Economic Factors

The job market in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan statistical area (MSA) showed positive growth. In June 2024, MSA jobs increased from 4,226,500 to 4,290,500, marking a 1.51% YoY increase with a net addition of 64,000 new jobs. Over the past five years, the job growth rate has averaged an annual increase of 2.51%. However, the unemployment rate for June rose to 4.29% from 3.89% in 2023.

Dallas Real Estate Market Appreciation

Dallas Housing Market Predictions 2024

The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington housing market has shown resilience and growth over the past year. As of the latest data, the average home value in this area stands at $381,600, marking an increase of 1.1%. Homes in this region typically go pending within 17 days, indicating a dynamic and fast-paced market.

MSA Forecast for the Coming Year

June 2024 Forecast

As of June 30, 2024, the forecast by Zillow for the Dallas housing market shows a slight dip with a predicted decrease of 0.4% in home values. This marginal decline suggests a cooling off period, potentially influenced by seasonal trends or slight adjustments in market dynamics.

September 2024 Forecast

Moving into the next quarter, by September 30, 2024, the forecast indicates a further decline of 1%. This continued decrease may reflect broader economic conditions or a response to interest rate adjustments. It will be essential for potential buyers and sellers to monitor these changes closely, as they could impact pricing strategies and market timing.

June 2025 Forecast

Looking ahead to June 30, 2025, the market is expected to stabilize with a minor decline of 0.1%. This forecast suggests a potential leveling out after the initial decreases observed in the previous months. The near-flat prediction indicates a period of adjustment where the market may find a new equilibrium.

Will the Market Crash or Boom?

Predicting whether the Dallas housing market will crash or boom involves analyzing multiple factors. Given the current data and forecasts, a significant market crash seems unlikely. The modest decreases in home values forecasted over the next year suggest a period of correction rather than a drastic downturn.

Several factors contribute to this outlook:

Economic Conditions: The overall economic health of the region, including job growth and income levels, remains strong, which supports housing demand.

Interest Rates: While rising interest rates can temper market activity, they are unlikely to cause a crash unless there is a significant economic downturn.

Supply and Demand: The balance between housing supply and demand in Dallas remains relatively stable. A balanced market typically avoids extreme fluctuations in home values.

However, market participants should remain vigilant. Monitoring economic indicators, housing supply trends, and policy changes will be crucial in anticipating future market movements. While a boom may not be imminent, the Dallas housing market appears to be heading towards a period of stability and gradual adjustment.

As depicted in this graph (Zillow), home values have increased year-over-year. This upward trend is expected to persist, with forecasts indicating continued growth over the next year.

Is Dallas a Good Place For Real Estate Investment? The Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metroplex is a booming region in Texas, consistently ranking high on lists of attractive real estate investment markets. But is it the right choice for you? Here's a detailed breakdown of key factors to consider:

City's Population Growth and Trends

Rapid Growth: Dallas is experiencing explosive population growth. Fueled by a strong job market and affordable living costs, the metroplex is projected to add over one million residents by 2030 [Dallas Business Journal]. This translates to a constant demand for housing, benefiting both rental and sales markets for investors.

Diverse Demographics: The DFW population is young and diverse, with a millennial-heavy demographic. This group typically fuels the rental market as they prioritize flexibility and affordability over immediate homeownership. Millennials are also known for their entrepreneurial spirit, further contributing to the area's economic dynamism.

Economy and Jobs

Strong Job Market: Dallas boasts a diversified economy with a strong presence of healthcare, finance, and technology industries. This translates to job security and a steady influx of professionals seeking quality housing, bolstering rental markets. The Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metropolitan area had a 6.5% job growth rate in February 2024, which was higher than the national average of 1.7%. This growth was driven by gains in manufacturing, financial activities, and leisure and hospitality. In 2023, the DFW metroplex added more than 154,000 new jobs, which was the second-highest number in the country after New York City.

Corporate Relocation Hub: Major corporations are increasingly choosing Dallas for their headquarters or regional offices. This trend in corporate relocation further strengthens the job market and creates a consistent demand for housing. Companies like Toyota North America and Topgolf have recently made the move to DFW, highlighting the region's attractiveness to businesses.

Livability and Other Factors

Business-Friendly Environment: Texas is known for its low taxes and business-friendly regulations, making it an attractive location for entrepreneurs and established companies alike. This fosters economic growth and a stable environment for real estate investment.

Relatively Affordable Living: While home prices have risen in recent years, Dallas remains more affordable compared to other major coastal cities. The cost of living in Dallas is significantly lower than in places like San Francisco or Los Angeles. This affordability continues to attract residents and renters, creating a healthy and dynamic housing market.

High Quality of Life: Dallas offers a high quality of life with a vibrant culture, diverse neighborhoods, and a range of entertainment options. The Dallas Arts District is a major hub for cultural attractions, while trendy neighborhoods like Deep Ellum offer a lively nightlife scene. This attracts residents and renters seeking a well-rounded lifestyle, boosting the overall demand for housing.

Rental Property Market Size and Growth

Large and Growing Market: The Dallas rental market is vast and flourishing. With a high percentage of residents choosing to rent, investors can find a wide variety of properties with strong rental potential. The dominance of the rental market can be attributed to several factors, including the young and transient nature of the population, and the affordability advantage of renting compared to buying in a market with rising home prices.

Favorable Rental Yields: Dallas offers competitive rental yields compared to the national average. This means investors can expect a healthy return on their investment through rental income. Yields can vary depending on property type, location, and overall market conditions, so careful research is crucial.

Other Factors Related to Real Estate Investing

Market Shift: As of May 2024, the Dallas market is transitioning from a seller's market to a buyer's market. This presents an opportunity for investors to potentially negotiate better deals and acquire properties at a more favorable price point. A buyer's market can also mean more time to conduct due diligence and research potential properties.

Rising Interest Rates: The recent rise in interest rates can impact investor calculations. Higher interest rates can increase financing costs and potentially lower profit margins. However, Dallas' strong fundamentals and potential for appreciation, along with the possibility of a more balanced market, can still make it a worthwhile investment. Investors with strong financial reserves and long-term investment horizons may be better positioned to weather short-term fluctuations in interest rates.

Remember: Real estate investing involves inherent risks. Conduct thorough research, consider your financial goals, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. By carefully weighing the factors outlined above, you can make an informed decision about whether investing in the Dallas real estate market aligns with your investment strategy.

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