Remarkably strong jobs market shows more signs of cooling; 206K jobs added in June

Job gains slowed in June, according to a out Friday morning.

CORY SMITH, The National Desk, www.facebook.com
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Remarkably strong jobs market shows more signs of cooling; 206K jobs added in June
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Job gains slowed in June, according to a out Friday morning.

U.S. employers added 206,000 jobs to their payrolls last month, down from 218,000 the previous month and lower than the average monthly gain of 220,000 over the past year.

Government positions accounted for 70,000 of the new jobs.

The Labor Department also revised April and May job gains lower. The net result was 111,000 fewer jobs in those two months than previously reported.

The government report comes on the heels of an ADP report on private-sector employment that showed job creation had slowed for the third straight month. Private employers added 150,000 jobs in June, according to the released Wednesday.

Hiring in leisure and hospitality led the way in June, according to the ADP report.

The Labor Department report, which includes both public and private labor data, said job gains occurred in government, health care, social assistance and construction.

The Labor Department’s report slightly beat the median forecast of 200,000 more jobs.

noted Friday morning on Threads that the economy has added 2.61 million jobs over the last year.

That's faster growth than any year ending between 2016 and 2020, though down from recent years, he said.

Sojourner said job growth is decelerating but has been “remarkably strong” given the braking from Federal Reserve policymakers.

The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate 11 times beginning in early 2022 as a lever to tame inflation.

High prices and high borrowing costs have put a clamp on Americans’ household budgets.

The Fed previously signaled several rate cuts for this year, but those have been tabled as inflation has remained stubbornly high.

The latest consumer price index, which tracks price increases with a set basket of goods, showed annual inflation at 3.3%. That’s down drastically from the 9.1% annual increase in June 2022, which marked inflation’s high point.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, which reflects what people are actually buying, last registered a 2.6% annual increase.

Both remain above the Fed’s target of 2% annual inflation.

The Fed still expects to cut interest rates this year but is split on whether that will be one or two.

said earlier this week that monthly job increases of 150,000 to 200,000 is sustainable and would likely be low enough to keep the Fed from worrying about inflation spiking again.

Senior Economic Analyst Mark Hamrick said via an emailed statement Friday that we might even see a rate cut as soon as September.

"With the Federal Reserve seeing inflation data in the statistical neighborhood of where it wants it to be, it is expected to cut interest rates in September,” Hamrick said. “If the job market continues to cool and inflation allows, the central bank will shift some of its attention away from the stable prices part of its mandate to increasingly focus on the other issue which is maximum employment."

Sojourner said prime age employment share (25-54 years old) is an important measure of core labor market strength, because it omits people on the fringes of work. That’s been steady at 80.8% for several months now. And it’s higher than any month since 2001, with the exception of last July.

Sojourner said “the scariest signal in here” is the negative movement with .

“It's the most flexible type of employment, easy to add when demand growing andamp; easy to shrink when demand falling,” he said. “Negative change over the year tends to be a strong predictor of recession. It's been negative over the year for a while now. An alternative possibility is that temp agencies can't keep staff because employers are forced to rely more on permanent hires. This would be a different pattern than in the past.”

The average workweek for private-sector employees held steady at 34.3 hours for the third month in a row. This has normalized from earlier in the pandemic when employers worked staff longer instead of hiring, Sojourner said.

Average hourly earnings increased 10 cents to $35, which is up 3.9% from last year.

The slightly ticked up from 4% to 4.1%.

Until May, the unemployment rate was riding a sub-4% streak of two straight years.

July 14, 2024

Story attribution: CORY SMITH, The National Desk, www.facebook.com
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