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We knew this wasn’t going to be easy. The Eagles capped off the 2023 season with a miserable stretch that had the NFL landscape whispering about the possibility that the coaching staff might be fired, but no one should have been foolish enough to think Philadelphia would be bad this year. Indeed, I think even optimistic Falcons fans had this game chalked up as a loss before the season began, mostly because it was in Philly.

That was before we saw the Atlanta Falcons offense in action at home against Pittsburgh, which has probably made the majority of us even more dour about this game. There is no doubt that the Falcons are capable of far better than what we saw from them in Week 1. There is also little doubt that they looked miles away from being a serious offense last week, and expecting a sharp reversal of that in just a week, on the road, and against one of the NFC’s best teams is probably expecting far too much.

The matchup, for all that, is a straightforward enough one, as we’ll get into below. Creating turnovers and playing the caliber of mistake-free, explosive football on offense that we envisioned coming into the year will be enough to give Atlanta a chance against a very good but not necessarily ready-to-be-elite defense and gifted offense that struggles to get out of its own way at times. Turning that recipe into a victorious stew, however, is the big ask.

Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Team rankings

Falcons - Eagles breakdown

A stellar Eagles offense struggled mightily against a quality Packers defense; a solid Falcons defense held up while a punchless Falcons offense foundered against the Steelers. If we had seen anything inspiring from Atlanta’s offense in the first week, I’d consider this a bit of an opportunity for a shootout. Because I did not, I hope it’s not a shootout.

How the Eagles have changed

The biggest change is that Jason Kelce is retired, and has been replaced by 2022 second round pick Cam Jurgens. Given the lousy success rate with the infamous tush push against the Packers, Kelce’s loss is a major one, but we already knew that. It’s probably the biggest hole opened up for Philadelphia’s roster this offseason.

Otherwise, this team focused on getting better and mostly did. Saquon Barkley is a massive upgrade at running back and one of the best backs in the league when healthy, and he looked it against the Packers. Bryce Huff was quiet in game one, but is a capable pass rusher adding his talents to a capable pass rush. Chauncey Gardner-Johson is back after a year away to add stability and ability to the secondary. And their draft class added even more talent to that secondary, with Quinyon Mitchell looking terrific already and Cooper DeJean figuring to blossom into a mighty useful player. Given that this was already a deep, talented roster, the Eagles are in pretty good shape.

They also turned over their coordinators after last season’s shocking, horrendous late season collapse, bringing in former Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and legendary defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. I’m not Moore’s biggest fan, but he seems like a good fit for this team, and Fangio will have this defense bringing heat and giving opposing offenses nightmares. The only team that can consistently beat the Eagles besides the NFL’s other elite teams—the Chiefs, the 49ers, etc.—is the Eagles themselves.

What lies ahead

A challenging matchup. The squandered opportunity to win in Week 1 puts more pressure on Atlanta to win in Week 2, but they’ll have to do so against a tougher opponent, on the road, and in primetime. I’m not going to honey dip it, that’s a rough draw.

Atlanta will need a bit of luck and a lot of quality play to win this one. The luck piece involves the Eagles doing baffling things for no appreciable reason, the impetus behind their 2023 collapse and the source of many of their troubles against the Packers. If they’re fortunate, Jalen Hurts will commit a couple of inexplicable turnovers against a defense that really should be more opportunistic, the team’s linebackers and secondary will get turned around in coverage a handful of times, and Nick Sirianni will call the worst timeout you’ve ever seen. All of that would help a great deal.

But as we saw when the Eagles took the mistake-prone Packers out in Brazil, Philadelphia is so good they can still score 30-plus points while doing alarmingly dumb things, a testament to the quality of the roster and their habit of mixing those mistakes with explosive plays and stellar stretches. The Falcons failing to slow Barkley on the ground and allowing for A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith to run roughshod over them the way George Pickens did will result in the Eagles putting up gobs of points, the way they did in 2021 in Arthur Smith’s first game. The defense was quality against Pittsburgh, but this is an entirely different stratosphere of defense, and they need to contain Philly’s playmakers and try to bait Hurts into making mistakes.

Even if the defense is stellar, of course, the offense is still this team’s biggest concern. After putting up just 10 points and looking shaky and uninspired against the Steelers, we’re going to be hoping for a much sharper effort against a Philly defense very capable of causing havoc. There is no singular talent like T.J. Watt to deal with, but the likes of Josh Sweat, Jalen Carter, Bryce Huff, and Zach Baun are all capable of generating significant pressure, especially if this line isn’t up to snuff. The Falcons should be able to run—the Packers had 163 yards on the ground on just 21 carries—and there are trouble spots in the secondary to attack, particularly Kelee Ringo and a suddenly mortal-seeming CGJ. If Cousins is immobile and the pass rush is relentless, though, chances are they’re going to struggle.

There isn’t a path to victory here that seems realistic outside of the Falcons forcing multiple turnovers and drastically improving on offense, and the latter is something we have to see to believe after Week 1. At the peak of what we would have perceived to be their powers before the season began, they have a puncher’s chance in this one. Anything less than that kind of effort will make for a long evening in Philadelphia.