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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons meet tonight on Thursday Night Football

Tonight’s TNF same-game parlay is highlighted by a Tampa Bay win in Atlanta

Below, see all three legs of a +675 Buccaneers vs Falcons SGP for TNF

We’re treated to an NFC South showdown tonight on Thursday Night Football when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in Atlanta to take on the Falcons. Kickoff for tonight is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET.

Beating a division rival in the NFL isn’t important just for bragging rights, but could determine playoff spots at the season’s end. That’s why tonight’s TNF matchup will be crucial in determining who will win the division. If my SGP pays out, it will a very good chance that the road to the NFC South title will go through Tampa.

Buccaneers vs Falcons Same-Game Parlay Picks

Tonight’s three-leg Buccaneers vs Falcons same-game parlay comes out to +675 odds at DraftKings.

Odds as of October 2nd at DraftKings Sportsbook. Get the latest DraftKings promo code before betting on Buccaneers vs Falcons.

The vibe check on last week’s Cowboys vs Giants SGP initially made sense to me, but I’ll admit I got the context all wrong. The feeling that the Cowboys would control proceedings was largely correct for the first leg (NYG 2nd Half Total Points Under 9.5), but splitting the difference on player performance in the other two legs (Dak Prescott 257+ Pass Yards andamp; Devin Singletary Anytime TD) did not work the way we expected.

That’s why my Week 5 Thursday Night Football SGP instead banks on the performance of just one team, as today’s NFL same-game parlay totals +675, where a $100 bet would earn a profit of $675, but only if all three legs hit.

Buccaneers vs Falcons SGP Pick #1: Buccaneers -1.5 Alt Spread

This leg of the parlay comes from the feeling that the Buccaneers will keep on rolling while the Falcons’ offense will again struggle to find its footing. That’s why I’m taking Tampa with an Alt Spread at -1.5, despite how its Atlanta who are the actual 1.5-point favorites in the current NFL odds.

Tampa has won six of their last eight against the Falcons overall, winning three of those matchups in Atlanta. The Bucs won’t be intimidated by a raucous Mercedes-Benz Stadium crowd, regardless of what bookmakers’ game lines will have you think.

Moreover, the Falcons are 0-3 ATS at home this season. If this ATS trend continues on Thursday, that means Atlanta will either win by 1 or lose outright.

Since I’m banking on “lose outright,” it stands to reason that I should go with the odds that make the most sense for the parlay.

Tampa are currently +105 to win straight up, +113 to cover -1.5, and +120 to cover -2. That half-point between -1.5 and -2 could mean everything if Tampa walks it off with a field goal when down by 1. Are we looking for a push? Of course not!

You could even go as high as -2.5, particularly when SBD’s formula has Tampa winning by as many as eight in tonight’s Buccaneers vs Falcons matchup, but I’m good with playing it safe and taking the Bucs to cover -1.5 instead.

Buccaneers vs Falcons Same-Game Parlay Picks #2: Baker Mayfield 250+ Alt Passing Yards

This leg has as much to do with Baker Mayfield’s performance this season as it does of the team he’s facing.

In Week 3, Denver’s pass rush was relentless, notching seven sacks on Mayfield when pressuring him in the pocket, as he constantly searched for open receivers in a secondary where coverage remained tight all day.

That end result for Tampa makes some sense, given that the Broncos have the best Pass Rush Win Rate in the NFL. It was always going to be difficult for the Bucs to take to the air against Denver, but how did their passing game do in their three wins?

Well, Mayfield threw for 289, 185, and 347 yards against teams with PRWRs respectively ranking at 8th (Commanders), 10th (Lions), and 11th (Eagles). Not quite as good as Denver, but still in the top-third of the league.

Why does any of this matter? On Thursday, Mayfield andamp; the Bucs face the team with the league’s fourth-worst PRWR. To be fair, Tampa owns the fifth-worst Pass Block Win Rate, but that matters less when Mayfield can stay mobile and put up 250+ yards like he did against Washington and Philadelphia.

As long as the Bucs aren’t limited in ball possession, like they were in the win against Detroit, Mayfield will be dynamic in the air. And even if the Falcons penetrate the pocket, Baker will cook the secondary with his improvisational skills.

Buccaneers vs Falcons SGP Pick #3: Chris Godwin Anytime Touchdown

With apologies to the man who’ll eventually be getting his gold jacket, I’m looking elsewhere for this week’s Anytime Touchdown scorer. Mike Evans may be the Bucs’ GOAT receiver, but I’m leaning towards Chris Godwin tonight.

History is backing me up on this one: though both players have registered a majority of their career touchdowns against Atlanta (9 for Godwin and 11 for Evans), it’s Godwin who does most of his damage in Atlanta.

Since Godwin joined the Bucs in 2017, he’s recorded 508 receiving yards and 4 TDs when playing in Atlanta, compared to Evans’ 403 yards and 0 TDs over that same timeframe. In fact, Evans has recorded just 1 of his 11 career TDs against the Falcons when in Atlanta.

Also factor in their respective 2024 stats to date: both players already have 3 TDs each, but Godwin leads Evans in Receptions (27 to 18), Targets (34 to 29), Catch% (79.4% to 62.1%), and Y/G (80.5 to 53/5).

Lastly, Godwin is getting +150 for his Anytime TD prop, compared to Evans’ +130. Let’s maximize this SGP by going with the player who’s historically performed better in Atlanta, is seeing the ball more in 2024, and will ultimately net us the bigger payout.

Ian’s 2024 NFL SGP Record: 1-2, +5.83 units

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