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No rest. The Atlanta Falcons may not have time to get banged-up birds like Troy Andersen and Kaleb McGary healthy, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers may be down a staggering number of crucial players. The NFL wants that sweet Thursday night cash, and the football almost always suffers as a result, even when it’s a battle between two division rivals that have enjoyed tight, close games in three of their last four meetings.

While nobody is overly thrilled about Thursday night games, this remains a crucial one. A Falcons win evens the top of the NFC South at 3-2 and puts Atlanta on top by virtue of a divisional tiebreaker, as they’ll be a sterling 2-0 with a long layoff before facing the Panthers. A Bucs win doesn’t end the divisional race by any means, but at 4-1 Tampa Bay will begin to pull away from everyone else, and Atlanta will fall back to the pack. Coming out of this stretch of three NFC South games with three wins would be absolutely massive for the Falcons, so this is not a game they can afford to slip up in.

Here’s what you need to know about the matchup ahead.

Team rankings

Another week, another opponent that is comfortably ahead of the Falcons in almost every high level metric I use for this table. Are the Buccaneers considerably better than the Falcons? I don’t really think so. Are they playing better thus far? Absolutely.

The Bucs are a good passing offense with a rushing attack that has more promise than it did a year ago, albeit without a ton of production in the early going. Their run defense is bad and their pass defense is underrated, and they’ve both done a good job of forcing turnovers (primarily fumbles) and avoiding them. You can’t beat yourself playing the Bucs, because they’ll gladly twist the knife if you do.

How the Buccaneers have changed

Like the Saints, the Bucs haven’t really changed that much, a product of limited cap space. Unlike the Saints, they are deep enough to weather injuries and appear to be talented enough to make a serious run at the NFC South this year. Am I writing off the Saints earlier than I should? Sure, but that’s my right.

The Bucs swapped away cornerback Carlton Davis out for a third round pick, rolling with the excellent duo of Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum instead. They brought back a familiar face in safety Jordan Whitehead (who has been strong in coverage, shaky in run defense), added a starting left guard in Ben Bredeson, and used the draft to restock at key positions, snagging a starting center in Graham Barton and a talented young back in Bucky Irving for early contributors.

The changes are fairly minimal, in other words—two starters along the offensive line notwithstanding—and the Bucs team that has made a habit of snagging a divisional title in recent years held on to continuity. Through four games, it’s largely paying off for them.

What lies ahead

A tough matchup. The Buccaneers did not receive the early season hype the Saints did after their torrid start, and they did not receive the preseason hype the Falcons did after their big moves. They’re just a good football team, albeit a banged up one, and they showed it with an alarmingly thorough dismembering of the Eagles last Sunday.

What’s working in Atlanta’s favor? It’s likely the Bucs will still be without star safety Antoine Winfield and defensive lineman Calijah Kancey, two essential pieces. They also remain a streaky team helmed by a streaky quarterback, as they have two impressive wins (37-20 over the Commanders, 33-16 over the Eagles) mixed with a squeaker (20-16 over the scuffling Lions), and a brutal loss to an inferior opponent (26-7 to the Broncos and Bo Nix). Catching them on a short week with a long injury report does not mean they’ll cease to be a tough opponent; it just makes it a more manageable matchup.

The trickiest thing to deal with is Tampa Bay’s newfound balance. Baker Mayfield is slinging it right now, with eight touchdowns and two interceptions, and the dynamic duo of Mike Evans and Chris Goodwin remains one of the league’s best despite their advancing age. The Bucs can now lean on a potent two-headed backfield, as Rachaad White’s listless performances on the ground can now to be supplemented by dynamic rookie runner Bucky Irving, and both players (but particular White) as capable pass catchers. Throw in a useful tight end in Cade Otton and the Bucs have weapons, as well as a good enough line to make the whole thing work. It’ll be a challenge to stop them, one the Falcons may have to take on without Troy Andersen.

Defensively, the Bucs can be had on the ground, and that’s good news for Bijan Robinson (who needs to get on track) and Tyler Allgeier (who is a runaway steam locomotive). They’ve allowed over 110 yards in every single game over the first month, and once you get to the second level you run into a group of defensive backs who are almost as a rule so-so tacklers and not-so-great run defenders with Antoine Winfield out. The Bucs are much stingier against the pass despite a relative lack of interceptions and sacks thanks to a secondary and linebacker groups that excels in coverage. It’s a stout defense coached by a great defensive coach, so the Falcons will get their best shot, and given the state of the passing game that’s not a particularly happy thought. Vita Vea’s excellence up front almost always ensures someone has the time and room to get into the backfield, so Atlanta’s injured line will have to step up again; the loss of SirVocea Dennis at least opens up opportunities in the passing game for Atlanta’s running backs.

Tampa Bay’s best quality has been their red zone work thus far. Teams have a league-high 17 red zone attempts against the Bucs, a product of being able to move downfield, but that defense gets real stingy in the red zone, as they have the 13th-lowest red zone touchdown percentage (just behind, of all teams, the Falcons). They’re also 12th in red zone touchdown percentage, and only five teams have punched in more scores inside the 20 this season. Atlanta’s defense will have to be sharp near the goal line (which they mostly have been), and they’ll have to overcome a tough defense to punch in their own touchdowns (which seems more difficult, given their 2024 track record).

Despite their huge week against the Eagles, the Buccaneers are far from unbeatable; the wilty team from Philadelphia missed 16 (!) tackles in Week 4 and was down its top two receivers. But Tampa Bay has a high floor and a talented roster that does the most basic things well and has big play potential on offense when Mayfield and company are rolling. Given the matchup and how shaky the Falcons offense has looked, we’re counting on improvement we have no right to expect this quickly. We have no choice but to expect it, regardless.